BBVA Research lowers its growth forecast for Spain to take into account the impact of the invasion of Ukraine

In addition, BBVA Research expects production line disruptions to continue, not only due to the war in Ukraine, but also other factors, such as China’s “zero tolerance” policy on the COVID-19, commodity market volatility and rising energy costs. . Besides, inflation reduces household purchasing power, which penalizes consumption. Finally, the drop in confidence could have negative consequences on investment and consumption.

In this context, BBVA research revised down its forecast for European GDP growth in 2022 from 3.7% to 2.0% and, for 2023, from 2.7% to 1.8%, while forecasting an asymmetric impact within the continent . BBVA economists expect the drop in EU-wide GDP growth to affect the performance of Spanish GDP in the same proportion. All of these factors combined lead to a downward revision of Spain’s GDP growth forecast to 4.1% in 2022 and 3.3% in 2023.

Spain’s GDP grew by almost 1.4% in the first quarter of 2022

Available data show that in the first three months of the year, the Spanish GDP left the starting line with a growth rate of around 1.4%. Consumption picked up, while the faster disbursement of NGEU funds seemed to trickle down to the economy.

According to The report, the indicators available since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of the sanctions point to a negative, although still limited, impact on activity in Spain. In the second half of March, there could be some slowdown in credit card spending, for example due to inflation, with card usage focusing more on transportation and food purchases. Nevertheless, home purchases continue to increase, driven by changing household preferences, the release of pent-up savings and inflation. In addition, spending supported by NGEU funds has accelerated: according to BBVA Research, this will strengthen the transition to investment-led growth.

“,”location”:”bottom”,”categoria_onetrust”:”C0002″},{“script”:”Google Tag Manager – 1/2″,”codigo”:”rnrnrn“,”location”:”head”,”categoria_onetrust”:”C0002″},{“script”:”Google Tag Manager – 2/2″,”codigo”:”rnrn“,”location”:”body”,”categoria_onetrust”:”C0002″},{“script”:”AddThis”,”codigo”:”rnrn rn “,”location” :”bottom”,”categoria_onetrust”:”C0004″},{“script”:”pixelES”,”codigo”:””,”location”:”head”,”categoria_onetrust”:”C0004″},{“script “:”pixelCO”,”codigo”:”rnrnrnrnrnrnrnrnrnrnrnrnrn rn rn”,”location”:”head”,”categoria_onetrust”:”C0004″},{“script”:”pixelPE”,”codigo”:” rn rnrnrnrnrnrnrnrnrnrn rn rnrn”,”location”:”head”,”categoria_onetrust”:”C0004″},{“script”:”pixelAR”,”codigo”:”rnrnrnrnrnrnrnrnrnrn rn “,”location”:”head”,”categoria_onetrust”:”C0004″},{“script”:”pixelMX”,”codigo”:””,”location”:”head” ,”categoria_onetrust”:”C0004″},{“script”:”pixelFacebookGlobal”,”codigo”:”rnrnrnrn”,”location”:”head”,”categoria_onetrust”:”C0004″}]; /* ]]> */

Comments are closed.