Under fire, Truss and Kwarteng prepare to confront loyal Tories

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Hello and welcome to the working week,

It was would have said by former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson that a week is a long time in politics. So how long is a month? It turns out to be a very, very long time, given the political and economic maelstrom since Liz Truss became party leader in early September. Perhaps she should have paid more heed to the advice of the FT editorial board.

This week, Truss will explain himself to his party, gathered for its annual conference in Birmingham. Although there was no-show reports by Tory MPs, Truss will certainly be joined by her Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng. He will address the conference on Monday. Truss delivers the closing remarks on Wednesday.

On the other side of the world, Chinese leaders are also involved in the management of certain parties. The country begins its annual Golden Week holiday, kicking off what is expected to be a month of patriotic pageantry in which President Xi Jinping is set to be given an unprecedented third term as Secretary General of the communist party and chief of the chinese army.

Then there are the more conventional elections. You will be able to read the analysis of the journalists of the FT on the “imperfect” vote of the presidential election in Brazil. And this Sunday, Austria will go to the polls to elect its new president.

Finally, it will be another great week for rocket enthusiasts as the SpaceX Crew-5 astronaut mission for Nasa is expected to to take off for the International Space Station from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida – as long as Hurricane Ian does not disrupt the proceedings.

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Economic data

Jobs will be at the center of a fairly lean week for economic data. The United States and Canada release figures on Friday.

It will also be possible to make international comparisons with the PMI reports for manufacturing and services.

Companies

It’s another busy week for high street news. Inflation will dominate the UK retailer Tesco half-year results: how much to absorb, how much to oblige suppliers to absorb and how much to pass on to consumers. Investors were somewhat surprised in April when the supermarket chain said it would forgo some profits this year to keep prices high, but the decision now seems prescient.

Other retailers are using funds to help their staff deal with the cost of living crisis. The John Lewis Partnership will this week start offering free food to staff at its department store and the Waitrose supermarket. It’s not entirely an altruistic move given the growing ‘war for talent’ ahead of the busy Christmas period and the warning this month from the employee-owned company that it may not be in able to pay its annual staff bonus.

Wages are rising in the sector. At least three retailers have imposed salary increases during the year and now they are also eliminating benefits – free meals, staff discounts and paid breaks among them.

Main economic and corporate reports

Here’s a more comprehensive list of what to expect in terms of corporate reports and economic data this week.

Monday

  • Eurozone bank credit survey of the EU and the European Central Bank in the third quarter

  • Euro zone, France, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, United States: data from the S&P Global/Cips manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI).

  • United Kingdom, the John Lewis Partnership begins to offer free food for staff in its department stores and Waitrose supermarkets to reduce the cost of living.

  • United States, construction spending figures

  • Results: Renewed Q2, Renew credits AF

Tuesday

  • Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia holds its monthly rate-setting meeting

  • United States, factory order data

  • Results: Greggs Third Quarter Business Update

Wednesday

  • France, August industrial production figures

  • France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States: S&P Global/IHS Markit services PMI data

  • Germany, trade balance figures

  • New Zealand, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand releases its rate setting decision

  • Poland, the Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland holds its rate-setting meeting.

  • Results: Tesco H1, Topps Tiles AF

Thursday

  • EU, August retail sales figures

  • Germany, UK: S&P Global Construction PMI data

  • India, S&P Global services PMI data

  • Elon Musk must be questioned under oath by Twitter‘s attorneys in litigation over the multi-billionaire’s bid to relinquish a $44 billion takeover. The five-day trial is scheduled to begin on October 17.

  • Results: Conagra Brands Q1, Constellation Brands Q2, CMC Markets S1 Commercial Update, Levi Strauss & Co Q3, McCormick & Company Q3

Friday

  • Canada, September unemployment figures

  • Italy, August retail sales figures

  • United Kingdom, quarterly productivity figures

  • United Kingdom, monthly house price index in Halifax

  • United Kingdom, Recruitment and Employment Confederation and KPMG Monthly Employment Report

  • United States, September unemployment figures

  • Results: JD Wetherspoon AF

Global Events

Finally, here’s a look at some of the other events and milestones from this week.

Monday

  • Austria, the Board of Directors of the International Atomic Energy Agency meets in Vienna

  • Canada, general election in Quebec

  • Germany, reunification holiday to celebrate 32 years of reunification. Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron are planning a working dinner in Berlin if the first recovers in time from Covid-19.

  • Iraq national day holiday

  • Sweden, the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine to come announcement in Stockholm. The Physics, Chemistry, Literature and Peace prizes will be announced over the next four days, with the last one being announced in Oslo, Norway.

Tuesday

  • Australia, Wimbledon 2022 runner-up Nick Kyrgios is due in court in Canberra on charges of assault following an incident last year.

  • EU, Ecofin council meeting discusses rising energy prices, the war in Ukraine, and the economic outlook, among other topics.

  • The United States, NASA and SpaceX plan to launch the fifth crewed mission to the International Space Station from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida either today or friday.

  • The Jewish holiday Yom Kippur, or Day of Atonement, begins

Wednesday

  • In Spain, a German-Spanish summit involving Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is due to take place in the Galician port city of La Coruña.

  • In the UK, drivers from the Aslef union at 12 rail operating companies are to stage another coordinated 24-hour strike, which will disrupt the UK rail network.

  • UK Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party Liz Truss speaks on the closing day of her party’s annual conference in Birmingham.

Thursday

  • Norway, the Norwegian government will present its budget 2023 at the Storting

  • Czech Republic, the European Political Community (EPC) meeting is due to take place in Prague, bringing together leaders from the EU, Ukraine, UK, Norway, Switzerland and Western Balkan countries .

  • In the United States, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers a curtain-raising speech at Georgetown University in Washington for the IMF Annual Meetings event next week.

Friday

  • Czech Republic, informal meeting of EU Heads of State or Government in Prague

  • Lesotho, general election

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin celebrates his 70th birthday

Saturday

  • Annual British and Scottish National Party Conference begins in Aberdeen

  • UK another 24-hour nationwide train strike, this time by RMT union railway workers in a dispute over jobs, pay and working conditions

Sunday

  • Austria, presidential elections

  • Germany, regional elections in Lower Saxony

  • Uganda, national day

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